نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی
نویسندگان
گروه اقتصاد امور عمومی، دانشکده اقتصاد، دانشگاه خوارزمی
کلیدواژهها
عنوان مقاله English
نویسندگان English
The importance of the housing sector and its relationship with other economic sectors, especially the oil sector, and the significant presence of the private sector in this economic sector, have made the study of the effects of oil shocks on private investment of considerable importance. In this study, by applying vector error correction model (VECM) and using annual time series data of Iran's economy during the years 1359 to 1399, the effect of oil shocks on private housing investment has been investigated. The results indicate that in the long term, the variables of GDP and inflation rate have a positive and significant effect on private investment in housing. Based on the estimates, 1 percent increase in GDP increases the private investment in housing by 0.7 percent. Also, with 1 percentage point increase in inflation, the private investment in housing increases by 0.67 percent. In the short term, the gross domestic product difference and positive oil shock have a positive effect on private housing investment, but the negative shock does not have a significant effect. With a 1 percent increase in GDP and a positive oil shock, the private housing investment increases respectively by 1.7 and 16.1 percent. The coefficient of error correction of private housing investment (ECM) is significant too and every year with a slow rate of 28.3 percent adjusts toward long-term equilibrium.
کلیدواژهها English