Oil shocks and Private Housing Investment in Iran


Articles in Press, Accepted Manuscript
Available Online from 28 October 2025

Document Type : Research Paper

Authors

1 Department of economics of public affairs, Faculty of economics, University of kharazmi

2 Department of economics of public affairs, faculty of economics, Kharazmi University, Tehran, Iran

Abstract
The importance of the housing sector and its relationship with other economic sectors, especially the oil sector, and the significant presence of the private sector in this economic sector, have made the study of the effects of oil shocks on private investment of considerable importance. In this study, by applying vector error correction model (VECM) and using annual time series data of Iran's economy during the years 1359 to 1399, the effect of oil shocks on private housing investment has been investigated. The results indicate that in the long term, the variables of GDP and inflation rate have a positive and significant effect on private investment in housing. Based on the estimates, 1 percent increase in GDP increases the private investment in housing by 0.7 percent. Also, with 1 percentage point increase in inflation, the private investment in housing increases by 0.67 percent. In the short term, the gross domestic product difference and positive oil shock have a positive effect on private housing investment, but the negative shock does not have a significant effect. With a 1 percent increase in GDP and a positive oil shock, the private housing investment increases respectively by 1.7 and 16.1 percent. The coefficient of error correction of private housing investment (ECM) is significant too and every year with a slow rate of 28.3 percent adjusts toward long-term equilibrium.

Keywords

Subjects
  • Receive Date 28 November 2024
  • Revise Date 19 February 2025
  • Accept Date 11 March 2025
  • First Publish Date 28 October 2025
  • Publish Date 28 October 2025