نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 دانشجوی دکتری اقتصاد، دانشگاه فردوسی مشهد

2 دانشیار گروه اقتصاد دانشگاه فردوسی مشهد

3 گروه اقتصاد دانشکده علوم اداری و اقتصادی دانشگاه فردوسی مشهد

4 دانشیار گروه ریاضی دانشگاه شهید باهنر کرمان

چکیده

امروزه سیاست­مداران و برنامه­ریزان اقتصادی به دنبال برقراری چندین هدف به­طور
هم­زمان، مانند برقراری توسعه­ی پایدار با اهداف اقتصادی، اجتماعی، زیست­محیطی و انرژی هستند ، در این صورت  به ابزاری تحلیلی نیاز دارند  تا  بتوانند مسائل را از ابعاد مختلف ارزیابی کنند. این مقاله برای اولین بار با ترکیب تحلیل داده ستانده با مدل برنامه­ریزی آرمانی چند­هدفه به ارائه­ی مدلی جهت تحلیل آثار اجرای هم­زمان اهداف اسناد بالا­دستی بر عمده فعالیت­های اقتصادی در ایران پرداخته است که می­تواند به عنوان یک مبنای ارزش­مند برای سیاست­گذاری و برنامه­ریزی در فعالیت­های اقتصادی و اجتماعی مورد استفاده قرار گیرد.در این پژوهش از داده­های جدول داده ستانده سال 1390 استفاده شده و داده­های مربوط به مقادیر دی­اکسید­کربن و مصرف انرژی از ترازنامه هیدروکربوری سال 1390 و آمارهای اشتغال نیز از سرشماری عمومی نفوس و مسکن سال 1390 مرکز آمار ایران به­دست آمده است. اهداف مدل بر اساس اسناد بالا­دستی، مانند قانون برنامه­ی پنجم توسعه­ی اقتصادی، اجتماعی و فرهنگی کشور و توافق زیست­محیطی پاریس تدوین شد. نتایج پژوهش نشان می­دهد  که علی­رغم دست­یابی به اهداف اقتصادی، اجرای هم­زمان سیاست­ها موجب رشد نامتوازن فعالیت­های اقتصادی می­شود و اهداف انرژی و زیست­محیطی نیز محقق نمی­شوند؛ بنابراین برای تحقق اهداف انرژی و زیست­محیطی باید تغییراتی اساسی در برخی از بخش­ها از جمله برق صورت گیرد.

کلیدواژه‌ها

عنوان مقاله [English]

The impression of major economic activities through simultaneous implementation of national document goals in Iran: Input – Output Analysis and Multi Objectiv Goal Programming approach

نویسندگان [English]

  • reza zeinalzadeh 1
  • mehdi khodaparast 2
  • masood homayounifar 3
  • mohammad ali yaghoobi 4

1 PhD student in economics, International Campus Ferdowsi University of Mashhad

2 Associate Professor, Department of Economics, Ferdowsi University of Mashhad

3 Associate Professor, Department of Economics, Ferdowsi University of Mashhad

4 Associate Professor of Mathematics, Shahid Bahonar University of Kerman

چکیده [English]

 
Nowadays, policy makers and economic planners are seeking to establish several goals simultaneously, such as making sustainable development based on economic, social, environmental and energy goals which require an analytical tool to assess the problem from different perspectives. Combining input-output analysis to introduce the multi-objective goal programming, this article proposes a model to achieve simultaneous national document goals on major economic activities for the first time in Iran, which can be used as a valuable basis for policy making and planning in economic and social activities. This study used the 2011 input - output table and the data concerning the quantities of carbon dioxide and energy usage obtained from 2011 hydrocarbon balance sheet. In addition, the employment data were obtained from Iran’s Statistics Center for housing and population census in 2011. The goals of the model were developed based on the fifth-year economic, social and cultural development plan and Paris environmental agreement. Despite achieving economic objectives, the results simultaneously show that the implementation of policies can lead to imbalanced growth of economic activities and energy; yet, the environmental objectives are not achieved. Thus, in order to achieve the energy and environmental goals, fundamental changes in some sectors such as power are inevitable.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • input-output analysis
  • goal programming
  • economic goals
  • social goals
  • national document
-           افشاری، زهرا. (1386). برنامه ریزی اقتصادی.چاپ سوم. تهران: سازمان مطالعه و تدوین کتب علوم انسانی دانشگاه­ها (سمت).## ترازنامه انرژی. (1392). معاونت امور برق و انرژی- دفتر برنامه­ریزی کلان برق و انرژی، (1391). ## زاهدی، شمس السادات. (1391). توسعه پایدار. چاپ پنجم. تهران: سازمان مطالعه و تدوین کتب علوم انسانی دانشگاه­ها (سمت). ## الفت، لعیا، جلالی، رضا و خسروانی، فرزانه. (1391). تحقیق در عملیات پیشرفته. چاپ اول. تهران: انتشارات مهکامه. ## مرکز آمار ایران. (1390). سرشماری عمومی نفوس و مسکن. ## مرکز آمار ایران.(1390). جدول داده – ستانده اقتصاد ایران. ## مومنی، منصور. (1393). مباحث نوین تحقیق در عملیات. چاپ ششم. تهران: انتشارات گنج شایگان. ## مهرگان، محمد رضا. (1392). مدل­های تصمیم­گیری با اهداف چند­گانه. چاپ اول. تهران: موسسه انتشارات دانشگاه تهران. ##
-          Aglietti, C., P. Zoppoli & G. Infantino. (2011). DecompositIOn Analysis of Italy’s Greenhouse Gas EmissIOns: an   I/O approach based on NAMEA data, 18th Annual Conference of European AssociatIOn of Environmental and Resource Economists, 29 June - 2 July 2011, Rome. ## Alves, M.J., H.C. Antunes & J. Clímaco. (1997). An Experimental Comparison of MOLP Interactive Approaches Based on a Regional Planning Model. In Multicriteria Analysis (pp. 428-439). Springer, Berlin, Heidelberg. ## Antunes, C.H., M.J. Alves & J. Clímaco. (2016). MultIObjectiv Linear and Integer Programming, pp: 80-83. Switzerland: Springer. ## Antunes, C.H., C. Oliveira & J. Clímaco. (2002). A study of the Interactions between the Energy System and the Economy Using TRIMAP. In Aiding Decisions with Multiple Criteria (pp. 407-427). Springer, Boston, MA. ## Beutel, J. (1983). Input-Output Analysis and Linear Programming: The General Input-Output Model. In Proceedings of the 3rd IIASA Meeting on Input-Output Modelling. ## Borges, A. R. & C.H. Antunes. (2003). A Fuzzy Multiple Objective Decision Support Model for Energy-Economy Planning. European Journal of OperatIOnal Research, 145(2), 304-316. ## Bullard, C.W. & R.A. Herendeen. (1995). The Energy Cost of Goods and Services. Energy Policy, 3 (4): 268–278. ## Carter, A.P. (1970). A Linear Programming System Analysing Embodied Technological Change. In: A.P. Carter and A. Brody (eds.) ApplicatIOns of Input–Output Analysis. Amsterdam, North-Holland, 77–98. ## Carvalho, A.L., C.H. Antunes, F. Freire & C.O. Henriques,. (2013). A Multi-Objective Interactive Approachto Assess Economic–Energy–Environment Trade-offs in Brazil. In Proceedings of the 1st InternatIOnal Congress on Energy and Environment: Bringing Together Economics and Engineering, May 9–10. Porto, Portugal. ## Clímaco, J.C.N. & C.H. Antunes. (1987). TRIMAP- An Interactive Tricriteria Linear Programming Package. Found. Control Eng., 12(3), 101-119. ## Climaco, J.C. & C.H. Antunes. (1989). ImplementatIOn of A User-Friendly Software Package A Guided Tour of TRIMAP. Mathematical and Computer Modelling, 12(10-11), 1299-1309. ## Daly, H.E. (1968). On Economics as A Life Science. Journal of Political Economy, 76(3), 392-406. ## Dantzig, G.B. (1963). Linear Programming and ExtensIOns. Princeton landmarks in mathematics and physics. ## Dorfman, R., P.A. Samuelson & R.M. Solow. (1958). Linear Programming and Economic Analysis. Courier CorporatIOn. ## He, P., T.S. Ng & B. Su. (2015). Energy Import Resilience with Input–Output Linear Programming Models. Energy Economics, 50, 215-226. ## Hsu, G.J.Y., P. Leung & C. Ching. (1987). A Multiobjective Programming and Interindustry Model Forenergy-Economic Planning in Taiwan. Energy Systems and Policy, 11: 185–204. ## Isard, W., C. Choguill, J. Kissin, R. Seyfarth, R. Tatlock & K. Basset. (1972). Ecologic-Economic Analysis for RegIOnal Development: Some Initial ExploratIOns with Particular Reference to RecreatIOnal Resource use and Environmental Planning. New York: The Free Press. ## Jones. D. & M. Tamiz. (2010). Practical Goal Programming, InternatIOnal Series in Operating & Management Science, Stanford University. ## Kondo, Y. & S. Nakamura. (2005). Waste Input–Output Linear Programming Model with its Application to Eco-Efficiency Analysis. Economic Systems Research, 17(4), 393-408. ## Leung, P. & G.J. Hsu. (1984). An Integrated Energy Planning Model for Hawaii. Energy economics, 6(2), 117-121. ## Liping, J. & C. Bin. (2010). An Input-Output Model To Analyze Sector Linkages and CO2 Emissions. Procedia Environmental Sciences, 2, 1841-1845. ## Matuszewski, T.I., P.R. Pitts & J.A. Sawyer. (1964). Linear Programming Estimates of Changes in Input Coefficients. Canadian Journal of Economics and Political Science/Revue Canadienne De Economiques Et Science Politique, 30(2), 203-210. ## Miller, R.E. & P.D. Blair. (2009). Input-Output Analysis: Foundations and Extensions. Cambridge University Press. ## Miller, R.E. & P.D. Blair. (1985). Input-Output Analysis: FoundatIOns and ExtensIOns, Englewood Cliffs, NJ, Prentice-Hall. ## Moulik, T.K. B.H. Dholakia, R.H. Dholakia, K.V. Ramani & P.R. Shukla. (1992). Energy Planning in India: The Relevance of Regional Planning for National Policy. Energy policy, 20(9), 836-846. ## Muller, F. (1979). Energy and Environment in Interregional Input-Output Models (Vol. 15). Springer Science & Business Media. ## OECD. (2001). The DAC Guidelines, Strategies for Sustainable Development. ## Oliveira, C., D. Coelho & H.C. Antunes. (2014). Coupling Input-Output Analysis with MultIObjective Linear Programming Model for the Study of Economy-Energy-Environment-Social (E3S) Trade-offs: A Review, Annals of Impact Research, 1-32. ## Oliveira, C. & C.H. Antunes. (2004). A Multiple Objective Model to Deal with Economy–Energy–Environment Interactions. European Journal of OperatIOnal Research, 153(2), 370-385. ## Oliveira, C. & C.H. Antunes. (2011). A Multi-Objective Multi-Sectoral Economy–Energy–Environment Model: ApplicatIOn to Portugal. Energy, 36(5), 2856-2866. ## R. K. Bose. (1990). A Linear Goal Programming Model for Urban Energy-Economy-Environment InteractIOn in the City of Delhi, Ph.D. Thesis, Indian Institute of Technology, New Delhi (April 1990). ## San Cristóbal, J.R. (2010). An Environmental/Input–Output Linear Programming Model to Reach The Targets for Greenhouse Gas Emissions Set By The Kyoto Protocol. Economic Systems Research, 22(3), 223-236. ## San Cristóbal, J.R. (2012). A Goal Programming Model for Environmental Policy Analysis: ApplicatIOn to Spain. Energy Policy, 43, 303-307. ## Ten Raa, T. (1994). On the Methodology Of Input-Output Analysis. Regional Science and Urban Economics, 24(1), 3-25. ## Victor, P. (1972). PollutIOn: Economics and Environment. London: George Allen & Unwin Ltd. ## Vogstad, K.O. (2009). Input-Output Analysis and Linear Programming. In Handbook of input-output economics in industrial ecology (pp. 801-818). Springer, Dordrecht. ## Wright, D.J. (1974). 3. Good and Services: An Input-Output Analysis. Energy Policy, 2(4), 307-315. ## Xie, J. & S. Saltzman. (2000). Environmental Policy Analysis: An Environmental Computable General-Equilibrium Approach For Developing Countries. Journal of Policy Modeling, 22(4), 453-489. ## ZIOnts, S. & J. Wallenius. (1976). An Interactive Programming Method for Solving The Multiple Criteria Problem. Management Science, 22(6), 652-663. ## ZIOnts, S. & J. Wallenius. (1983). An Interactive Multiple Objective Linear Programming Method for A Class of Underlying Nonlinear Utility Functions. Management Science, 29(5), 519-529. ##