Iran's role in the future of EU Energy supply

Hamoei, Fatemeh; Barzegar, Keyhan; Ahmadi, Hamid; Daheshiar, Hossein

doi:10.22055/jqe.2021.32467.2214

Iran's role in the future of EU Energy supply

https://doi.org/10.22055/jqe.2021.32467.2214

Volume 18, Issue 4 - Serial Number 71

Vol. 18, No. 4, Winter 2022

Winter 2022

Pages 191-224

Quarterly Journal of Quantitative Economics (JQE)

Document Type : Article-Based Dissertations

Authors

Fatemeh Hamoei ¹

Keyhan Barzegar ²

Hamid Ahmadi ³

Hossein Daheshiar ⁴

¹ PhD Student in International Relations, Department of International Relations, Faculty of Law, Theology and Political Science, Science and Research Branch, Islamic Azad University, Tehran, Iran.

² Associate Professor, Department of International Relations, Faculty of Law, Theology and Political Science, Islamic Azad University, Science and Research Branch, Tehran, Iran.

³ Professor, Department of Political Science, Faculty of Law and Political Science, University of Tehran, Tehran, Iran.

⁴ Professor, Department of Political Science, Faculty of Law and Political Science, Allameh Tabatabai University, Tehran, Iran.

Abstract

EXTENDED ABSTRACT
INTRODUCTION
Despite the growing trend of renewable energy production in the world, that will significantly reduce dependence on fossil fuel in major energy comsuming countries, the IAEA forecasts during the next 30 years all industrialized countries, including menbers of the EU, will be increasingly dependant on the importation of oil and gas. Thereforethe security of energy supply will be a core issue in the EU. According to forecasts by the European Commission's Energy Office, energy supply within the European Union will decline by about 20% in2030compared to 2005, so that Europe will need to import more than 55%of its energy. Meanwhile, gas is the main source of energy on which there wiil be the most dependence. Gas cooperation between the EU and Russia has existed since 1960. It has passed a variety of challenges successfully and is now an important aspect of the overall EU-Russia relationship. Russia is the largest exporter of natural gas to the European Union, so as the revenues from exports to the EU accounts for a large share of Russia's GDP. However, current EU-Russia energy policies do not appear to becooperative, and implementation of previous initiatives has slowed. There are a number of studies on the interdependence between Russia and the European Union in terms of energy, especially gas trade, as well as the analysis of misunderstandings and conflicts in this regard. However, the way in which such interdependence can affect Iran has not been well explored. None of the studies has considered Iran as an important player or even a solution to the "crisis" in EU-Russia energy relations.

METHODOLOGY
In this research, statistical, descriptive, analytical and historical research methods have been used. Information was also collected through library and Internet resources and using news databases based on objective-historical data, and an attempt was made to use the most reliable and up-to-date statistical and descriptive information of domestic, regional and international study centers. The libraries of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, the Library of the University of Science and Research, the Library of the Center for Middle East Studies and Research of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, the National Library and domestic and international virtual libraries have been used to obtain library information.

FINDINGS
The inability of some members of the European Union to supply energy resources or their monopoly, and high dependence on Russian gas and lack of trust in that country, insufficient gas resources in the Caspian Sea and a 25 percent reduction in energy production within the EU by 2030 (compared to 2000(, the Union's main challenges in ensuring energy security have made the EU adopt a "collective energy security" approach. In line with theories of reciprocity and neo-functionalism, EU-Russia cooperation in the field of energy can reduce the conflict and accelerate cooperation in other areas and establish peace in relations between the two sides. One of the requirements of the EU Collective Security Strategy is the diversification of the EU's energy supply, and in this strategy, the Islamic Republic of Iran, as the holder of the world's first energy reserves (total oil and gas), can play a key role in the EU's energy supply. If this is achieved, further stabilization will accelerate Iran's economic development from two perspectives of Iran's security and the region, as well as the provision of economic benefits.

CONCLUSION
Despite various challenges in reducing the share of Russian gas in the European energy basket, Iran can play a special role in this process due to its abundant gas resources and strategic geographical location. Although the establishment of a special program for strategic cooperation between the EU and Iran regarding energy has always been a serious challenge due to the US economic sanctions, the strong mutual desire to establish economic relations, especially after the 2013 nuclear deal, confirms that the concept of interdependence can be used for bilateral relations in this regard. This study discusses how this dependence regarding energy, can ultimately lead to explaining the role of Iran in the future energy supply of Europe. According to the results, Iran will be able to meet 10% of global consumer needs in the long run if it overcomes the political challenges of international relations and lift sanctionsThis will lead to a strategic partnership between the EU andIran that will improve international investment and trade as well as technology transfere. With the rapid,stable improvement in Iran, this can be an advantage.

Keywords

Energy Security

Iran

Geopolitics

Interdependence

Subjects

Environmental, Resource and Energy Economics

Aminian, B. (2013). The Geopolitics of Energy: EU and Energy Security. Geopolitics quarterly, 9(30), 82-107. Available at: https://dorl.net/dor/20.1001.1.17354331.1392.9.30.3.6 ##British Petroleum Company (2019). BP Statistical Review of World Energy Report. BP: London, UK. Available at: BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2019: an unsustainable path | News and insights | Home##Capros, P., De Vita, A., Tasios, N., Siskos, P., Kannavou, M., Petropoulos, A., ... & Paroussos, L. (2016). EU Reference Scenario 2016-Energy, transport and GHG emissions Trends to 2050. ##Dale, S. (2019). BP statistical review of world energy. BP Plc, London, United Kingdom, 14-16. Available at: BP Statistical Review of World Energy/Energy in 2020: the year of COVID (imemo.ru) ##Dehghani Firoozabadi, Seyed Jalal & Firooz Abadi, Seyed Rahman. (2011). Characteristics of Russia's energy security strategy towards the European Union. Scientific Journal of Security Horizons, 4(12), 37-66. Available at: https://ps.ihu.ac.ir/article_200386.html?lang=fan Persian) ##European Commision, (2018). Statistical Pocketbook 2018. Eurostat Website. Available at: https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/documents/46346/9314552/PAS_Pocketbook2018_Web+version.pdf/4a906281-3dca-4834-af72-1c52142251a0##European Commission, (2020). Shedding light on energy in the EU. Eurostat Website. Available at: https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/cache/infographs/energy_2020/images/pdf/pdf-energy-eurostat-2020.pdf##Fathollah-Nejad, A. (2018). Europe and the Future of Iran Policy: Dealing with a Dual Crisis. Policy Briefing, Brookings Doha Center, October. Available at: https://www.brookings.edu/wp-content/uploads/2018/10/Europe-and-the-future-of-Iran-policy-dealing-with-a-dual-crisis-English.pdf##Insight, M. E. (2019). Global Energy Perspective 2019, McKensey Solutions Sprl. Available at: https://www.mckinsey.com/~/media/McKinsey/Industries/Oil%20and%20Gas/Our%20Insights/Global%20Energy%20Perspective%202019/McKinsey-Energy-Insights-Global-Energy-Perspective-2019_Reference-Case-Summary.ashx##Islamic Republic of Iran Broadcasting, (2016). A look at the features of the new model of oil contracts called IPC. ##Keipour, J., & Izadi, J. (2010). Energy diplomacy and the imperative of its use for securing Iran’s national interests. Foreign relations, 1(4), 139-162. Available at: https://www.sid.ir/fa/journal/ViewPaper.aspx?ID=113804 (In Persian) ##Khalouzadeh, Saeed, (2012). EU Common Foreign Policy; Identity, Security and Politics. Tehran: Research Institute for Strategic Studies. ##Khateri, Z., Njarzadeh, R., & Agheli-Kohnehshahri, L. (2021). The Impact of Economic Sanctions on Capital Account in Iran. Quarterly Journal of Quantitative Economics, 18(3), 135-162. Available at: https://jqe.scu.ac.ir/article_14639.html (In persian) ##Koolaee, E. (2011). Iran's role in energy security at regional and global levels. Iranian Economic Review, 15(28), 95-115. Available at: https://ier.ut.ac.ir/article_32716_e4085abcf798de4ac5c57fa69cacbffc.pdf ##Nadali, M., Rezaee, J., & Salahmanesh, A. (2012). THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN TOTAL FACTOR PRODUCTIVITY AND OIL GROWTH. Available at: https://jqe.scu.ac.ir/article_10590.html (In persian) ##National Iranian Gas Company, (2019). Gas production and consumption annual report. ##National Iranian Oil Company, (2016). Conference on the requirements and challenges of partnership agreements and financial instruments for investment in the oil industry DPI. ##Ramazanzadeh, A. (2010). Gazprom's Place in Russian Energy Strategy. Central Eurasia Studies, 3(6). Available at: https://www.sid.ir/fa/journal/ViewPaper.aspx?ID=111324 (In Persian) ##Shabani, Maryam. (2019). Iran's strategic role and position in establishing energy transmission lines (oil and gas) to Europe and its impact on Iran's regional integration. Journal of New Attitudes in Human Geography, 11 (3), 431-444. Available at: http://geography.journals.iau-garmsar.ac.ir/article_665995.html (In persian) ##Sohrabi, K. (2013). The geopolitical Function of Islamic Republic of Iran in the Immunity of Energy of European Union. Political Science, 16(Issue 61), 145-173. https://dx.doi.org/10.22081/psq.2013.22878 (in Persian) ##Soltani, A., & Behmanesh, R. (2012). European Union and energy security challenges. Studies of international relations journal (Poltical science and international relations journal), 4(17), 211-240. Available at: https://www.sid.ir/fa/journal/ViewPaper.aspx?ID=220185 (In Persian) ##US Energy Information Administration (Ed.). (2018). Annual Energy Outlook 2018: With Projections to 2050. Government Printing Office. Available at: https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/aeo/pdf/AEO2018_FINAL_PDF.pdf##Vosouqi, S., & Zarei Hodak, M., & Zarei Hodak, M. (2015). Mutual energy strategy in relations of Russia and EU. Journal of central eurasia studies, 8(1), 127-148. Available at: https://dx.doi.org/10.22059/jcep.2015.54965 (In persian) ##Youngs, R. (2009). Energy security: Europe's new foreign policy challenge. Routledge. Available at: https://ir1lib.org/book/2068603/9b2f19##Youngs, R. (2014). A new geopolitics of EU energy security. Carnegie Europe, 23. Available at: A_New_Geopolitics_of_EU_Energy_Security_-_Carnegie_Europe_-_Carnegie_Endowment_for_International_Peace-with-cover-page-v2.pdf (d1wqtxts1xzle7.cloudfront.net) ##Zarghani, S., Dabiri, A. (2014). Geopolitical Opportunities of the Islamic World in the Organization of Gas Exporting Countries. The Iranian Research letter of International Politics, 2(3), 70-94. doi: 10.22067/jipr.v2i3.44269 (In persian) ##

XML

PDF 936.07 K

Extended Abstract

Full Text in second language