Document Type : Research Paper
Authors
1
Assistant Professor of Economics, Department of Economics, Payame Noor University, Tehran, Iran.
2
Assistant Professor of Business Management, Department of Business Management, Malayer University, Malayer, Iran.
3
Assistant Professor of Management, Department of Management, Payame Noor University, Tehran, Iran.
Abstract
Iran’s digital economy, despite its growing contribution to GDP and employment, remains highly vulnerable to shocks due to its inherently networked structure, leading to rapid and cascading interprovincial spillover effects. This study investigates interprovincial volatility spillovers in Iran’s digital and information economy with the aim of identifying net transmitter and net receiver provinces under different market conditions. Employing a Panel Quantile Vector Autoregressive (PQVAR) model—specifically designed for panel data combining a cross-sectional dimension of 31 provinces and a time-series dimension covering 2012–2022 (1391–1401 SH)—the analysis uses linearly interpolated daily data derived from annual provincial statistics (46,032 observations). Key variables include total factor productivity, fixed/mobile telephone and internet subscribers, bandwidth capacity, electronic transactions, knowledge-intensive industries, a sanctions dummy, and composite indices of the digital economy and e-banking. The model is estimated at the 25th (low/regression), 50th (normal), and 75th (high/crisis) quantiles. Results reveal strong and persistent interconnectedness (total connectivity indices: 96.28%, 94.87%, and 96.34% at the 25th, 50th, and 75th quantiles, respectively). In low regimes, Bushehr, Chaharmahal & Bakhtiari, and North Khorasan act as the primary net transmitters, whereas Fars and Hormozgan emerge as the main net receivers during crisis conditions. Technology shocks in 2016 (1395 SH) and content shocks in 2017 (1396 SH) significantly amplified spillover intensity. The gradual decline in the total connectivity index over time suggests progressive improvement in digital infrastructure and better post-shock spillover management, although interprovincial dependence remains a challenge. Robustness checks confirm that results are insensitive to variations in rolling-window size and forecast horizon. Findings offer targeted policy implications: policymakers should prioritize strengthening digital infrastructure in net-receiver provinces such as Fars and Hormozgan through investments in local data centers, provincial cloud facilities, and startup guarantee funds to reduce systemic reliance on transmitter provinces. Additionally, nationwide programs for technology- and content-shock mitigation are recommended to enhance the overall resilience and sustainability of Iran’s digital economy.
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