Investigating the Impact of Inflation Uncertainty on Financial System Efficiency: Panel-ARDL Approach


Articles in Press, Accepted Manuscript
Available Online from 16 March 2026

Document Type : Research Paper

Authors

1 Associate Professor, Department of Economics, Faculty Member, Urmia University, Iran

2 PhD Candidate in Economics, Faculty of Economics and Management, Urmia University, Urmia, Iran.

Abstract
The aim of this study is to investigate the impact of inflation uncertainty on financial system efficiency in 71 developing countries using a panel autoregressive model over the period 2004-2023. For this purpose, first, the stationarity of the variables was examined using the Im-shin-Pesaran unit root test, then the cross-sectional independence test was examined to detect dependence, and finally, the panel-ARDL model was estimated. The results indicate that in the long run, inflation uncertainty and the governance index have a negative and significant impact on financial system efficiency and reduce financial system efficiency. The results also show that in the long run, the impact of economic growth and financial development on financial system efficiency is positive and significant, but in the short run, they have a negative and significant impact on financial system efficiency.

The aim of this study is to investigate the impact of inflation uncertainty on financial system efficiency in 71 developing countries using a panel autoregressive model over the period 2004-2023. For this purpose, first, the stationarity of the variables was examined using the Im-shin-Pesaran unit root test, then the cross-sectional independence test was examined to detect dependence, and finally, the panel-ARDL model was estimated. The results indicate that in the long run, inflation uncertainty and the governance index have a negative and significant impact on financial system efficiency and reduce financial system efficiency. The results also show that in the long run, the impact of economic growth and financial development on financial system efficiency is positive and significant, but in the short run, they have a negative and significant impact on financial system efficiency.

Keywords

Subjects
  • Receive Date 27 June 2025
  • Revise Date 02 October 2025
  • Accept Date 03 October 2025
  • First Publish Date 16 March 2026
  • Publish Date 16 March 2026