Document Type : Research Paper

Authors

• Mahsa Ghasabi ¹
• Mahmood Haji-Rahimi ¹
• Hamed Ghaderzadeh ²

¹ Department of Agricultural Economics, Faculty of Agriculture, University of Kurdistan, Sanandaj, Iran

² Agricultural Department, College Agriculture, University of Kurdistan, Sanandaj, Iran

Abstract

This study examines the effects of risk on farmers’ economic decisions in determining the optimal agricultural cropping pattern. Optimal allocation of land and water, as well as selecting suitable crops for each region in a transparent, low-risk environment to maximize production benefits, can contribute to sustainable agricultural development and food security. In Iran, the government is utilizing supportive policies to develop and implement optimal cropping patterns for strategic crops such as wheat to achieve self-sufficiency, reduce input consumption, and protect the environment. Accordingly, the primary question of this research is: How and to what extent does production risk affect agricultural cropping patterns? To investigate this issue, a quantitative risk-based programming model was developed to analyze various factors in determining the optimal economic cropping pattern. Different cropping scenarios for six major crops—wheat, barley, potatoes, cucumbers, alfalfa, and canola—were applied empirically in Dehgolan Plain over the agricultural years of 2017 to 2023. Results from the various cropping scenarios in this region indicated that risk is a fundamental factor in shaping cropping patterns. In scenarios designed to minimize risk while maximizing income, canola emerged as a significant crop, alongside wheat and barley, which are already part of the current farming program due to their lower water needs and income risk. The increase in wheat acreage in the fifth scenario was primarily due to its lower production risk, supported by government subsidies, reduced water requirements, and higher resistance to climatic conditions. Overall, findings demonstrated that farmers have established a rational trade-off between reducing production risk and securing higher income, which is also reflected in the current cropping pattern. The results also indicated the relative success of government policies in reducing the production risk of wheat, thus encouraging farmers to grow more of this strategic crop. However, incentive policies for expanding crops with lower water requirements to promote environmental sustainability and agricultural resilience have not been successful. Based on these findings, it is recommended that similar support programs as those for wheat be implemented for crops with lower water demands, particularly canola, to reduce production risk and encourage farmers' adoption."

Keywords

• Cropping pattern
• Mathematical Programming
• MOTAD model
• Risk Management

Main Subjects

• Environmental, Resource and Energy Economics