فصلنامه علمی پژوهشی اقتصاد مقداری

بررسی اثرات مستقیم و غیرمستقیم زیرساخت حمل‌ونقل جاده‌ای بر رشد منطقه‌ای شهرستان‌های استان خوزستان

https://doi.org/10.22055/jqe.2024.46844.2625
دوره 23، شماره 2 - شماره پیاپی 89
دوره بیست و سوم، شماره دوم، تابستان 1405
تابستان 1405
صفحه 104-150
فصلنامه علمی پژوهشی اقتصاد مقداری

نوع مقاله : مقاله مستخرج از رساله دکتری

نویسندگان

سید امین منصوری 1
سید مرتضی افقه 2
مصطفی محمدی ده چشمه 3
معصومه ابراهیمی 4

1 دانشیار اقتصاد، گروه اقتصاد، دانشکده اقتصاد و علوم اجتماعی، دانشگاه شهید چمران اهواز، اهواز، ایران.

2 استاد اقتصاد، گروه اقتصاد، دانشکده اقتصاد و علوم اجتماعی، دانشگاه شهید چمران اهواز، اهواز، ایران.

3 استاد جغرافیا و برنامه ریزی شهری، گروه جغرافیا و برنامه ریزی شهری، دانشکده ادبیات و علوم انسانی، دانشگاه شهید چمران اهواز، اهواز، ایران.

4 دکتری اقتصاد شهری و منطقه‌ای، گروه اقتصاد، دانشکده اقتصاد و علوم اجتماعی، دانشگاه شهید چمران اهواز، اهواز، ایران.

چکیده
چکیده گسترده
معرفی:
رشد اﻗﺘﺼﺎدی ﻫﺮ ﻣﻨﻄﻘﻪ ﺑﺮ اﺳﺎس ﻇﺮﻓﯿﺖﻫﺎی ﻣﺨﺘﻠفی ﺻﻮرت می‌پذﯾﺮد، که یکی از ﻣﻬﻤﺘﺮﯾﻦ آﻧﻬﺎ زﯾﺮﺳﺎﺧﺖﻫﺎی ارﺗﺒﺎطی و ﺣﻤﻞوﻧﻘﻞ ﺟﺎده‌ای است. اگر اﺑﻌﺎد ﻣﺨﺘﻠﻒ ﺗﻮﺳﻌﻪ اﻗﺘﺼﺎدی ﻣﻮرد ﺑﺮرسی ﻗﺮار گیرد، استنباط می شود که ﺗﻤﺎم اﯾﻦ ﻓﻌﺎﻟﯿﺖﻫﺎ از آﻏﺎز ﺗﺎ ﺑﻬﺮهﺑﺮداری ﺑﻪ گوﻧﻪای ﺑﺎ ﻣﺴﺎﯾﻞ ﺣﻤﻞوﻧﻘﻞ ارﺗﺒﺎط دارﻧﺪ. زﯾﺮﺳﺎﺧﺖﻫﺎی ارﺗﺒﺎطی و ﺣﻤﻞو ﻧﻘﻞ ﺑﻪ ﻋﻨﻮان یکی از ﻋﻮاﻣﻞ ﺗﺎﺛﯿﺮگذار ﺑﺮ روﻧﻖ اﻗﺘﺼﺎدی، از ﻃﺮﯾﻖ ﺟﺎﺑﺠﺎیی ﺑﺎر و ﻣﺴﺎﻓﺮ، زﻣﯿﻨﻪﻫﺎی اﻣکان دﺳﺘﺮسی ﺑﻪ رﻓﺎه و ﺗﺴﻬﯿﻼت ﻣﻨﻄﻘﻪای را اﻓﺰاﯾﺶ می‌دهد و ﺑﻨﺎﺑﺮاﯾﻦ در ﻓﺮآﯾﻨﺪ ﺗﻮﺳﻌﻪی اﻗﺘﺼﺎدی، ﻧﻘﺶ ﺑﺴﯿﺎر ﻣﻬﻢ و ﺗﺎﺛﯿﺮگذار دارد؛ ﺿﻤﻦ آنکه ﺧﻮد ﻧﯿﺰ از ﻓﺮآﯾﻨﺪ ﺗﻮﺳﻌﻪی اﻗﺘﺼﺎدی ﺗﺎﺛﯿﺮپذﯾﺮ میﺑﺎﺷﺪ (Shahraki Moghadam, Karimian Bostani, & Anuri, 2020).
خوزستان در جایگاه بسیار استراتژیک و ترانزیتی واقع شده به طوری که پس از استان تهران، بیشترین تولید ناخالص در بین استان‌های ایران را دارا است. استان خوزستان دارای ۲۹ شهرستان، ۷۰ بخش، ۱۴۶ دهستان و ۸۸ شهر است. خوزستان با توجه به شرایط اقلیمی و اقتصادی خود، شاهد تغییرات قابل توجهی در شهرستان­های مختلف خود بوده است. بر طبق آمار منتشر شده از اداره راهداری و حمل‌ونقل جاده‌ای خوزستان طول راه­های اصلی شهرستان دزفول از 31/163 در سال 90 به 6/231 درسال 99 یعنی 40 درصد ولی شهرستان شوشتر از 9/227 در سال 90 به 2/282 در سال 99 رسیده یعنی 24 درصد رشد را نشان می‌دهد (Alavi & Esfandiari, 2019). برای این منظور از شاخص قطب[1]، شاخص دسترسی[2] و پتانسیل بازار[3] برای بررسی تاثیر زیر ساخت حمل و نقل بر رشد اقتصادی شهرستان‌های استان خوزستان استفاده شده است.
 
متدولوژی:
داده‌های تحقیق برای دوره ی زمانی 1399-1390 برای 27 شهرستان استان خوزستان در قالب داده‌های تابلویی است که به منظور بررسی اثرات زمانی و فضایی از روش گشتاورهای تعمیم یافته (GMM) استفاده شده است.
 
یافته­ها:
یافته های تحقیق نشان می دهد که در صورت تغییر 10 درصد در اندازه‌ی شاخص قطب بزرگترین شهرستان‌های استان خوزستان، 4.4 درصد از سرانه تولیدناخالص داخلی کم می‌شود. همچنین در صورت تغییر 100 درصد در اندازه‌ی شاخص قطب شهرستان‌های استان خوزستان، 7 درصد به اندازه‌ی بزرگترین شهرستان‌های استان خوزستان اضافه می‌شود. همچنین بر اساس نتایج تخمین در صورت تغییر 10 درصد در اندازه‌ی بزرگترین شهراستان خوزستان، حدود 20 درصد به تولیدناخالص داخلی شهرستان‌های استان خوزستان اضافه می‌شود. همچنین اثر غیر مستقیم تاثیر شاخص قطب بزرگترین شهرستان بر تولید ناخالص داخلی اثر مثبت و به اندازه 0.12 است. بر اساس این نتیجه و نتایج مدل 3-1، که در آن اثر مستقیم تاثیر شاخص قطب بزرگترین شهرستان بر تولید ناخالص داخلی به میزان 0.44- محاسبه شده است نشان از اثرات در جهت مخالف دارد. به طوریکه در مجموع اثر قطب بزرگترین شهرستان بر تولید ناخالص داخلی شهرستان های استان خوزستان 0.32- خواهد شد.
 
نتیجه گیری:
نتایج تحقیق نشان می دهد که شاخص قطب اثر مثبت بر اندازه ی شهرستان های استان خوزستان داشته ولی از تولید ناخالص داخلی شهرستان های استان کم کرده است. این درحالی است که رشد شهرستان های بزرگ در استان خوزستان باعث افزایش تولید ناخالص داخلی استان شده است. اثرات غیر مستقیم شاخص قطب نیز نشان از اثرات مثبت بر تولید ناخالص داخلی شهرستان های استان خوزستان دارد. نتایج این تحقیق نشان می‌دهد توسعه فضایی زمانی شهرستان استان خوزستان منطبق بر شاخص قطب نبوده است و به نظر می رسد شهرستان‌هایی که ظرفیت قطب بودن در آن ها بیشتر است در حاشیه قرار گرفته‌اند. بنابراین توصیه می شود که به منظور توسعه ی متوزان در شهرستان های استان خوزستان مسئله ی قطب بودن شهرستان مد نظر قرار بگیرد و به شهرستان هایی که شاخص قطب بالاتر و پتانسیل بالاتری در این زمینه دارند مانند کارون و حمیدیه توجه بیشتری شود.
 
[1] Hubness index
[2] Accessibility index
[3] Market potential index

کلیدواژه‌ها

رشد منطقه‌ای
حمل و نقل جاده ای
پتانسیل بازار
فضا
خوزستان
موضوعات

عنوان مقاله English

Investigating the Direct and Indirect Effects of Road Transport Infrastructure on The Regional Growth of The Cities of Khuzestan Province

نویسندگان English

Sayed Mansouri 1
Seyed Morteaza Afghah 2
mostafa mohammadi Dehchehshmeh 3
Masomeh Ebrahimi 4
1 Associate Professor of Economics, Department of Economics, Faculty of Economics and Social Sciences, Shahid Chamran University of Ahvaz, Ahvaz, Iran
2 Professor of Economics, Department of Economics, Faculty of Economics and Social Sciences, Shahid Chamran University of Ahvaz, Ahvaz, Iran.
3 Professor of Geography and Urban Planning, Department of Geography and Urban Planning, Faculty of Literature and Humanities, Shahid Chamran University of Ahvaz, Ahvaz, Iran.
4 PhD in urban and Regional Economics, Department of Economics, Faculty of Economics and Social Sciences, Shahid Chamran University of Ahvaz, Ahvaz, Iran.
چکیده English

EXTENDED ABSTRACT
INTRODUCTION
The economic growth of each region is based on different capacities, one of the most important of which is the communication and Road Transport Infrastructure. If the different dimensions of economic development are examined, it is inferred that all these activities from the beginning to the exploitation are in some way related to transportation issues. As one of the factors affecting economic prosperity, communication and transportation infrastructure increases the availability of regional welfare and facilities through the movement of cargo and passengers, and therefore plays a very important and influential role in the process of economic development; while also being influential in the process of economic development (Shahraki Moghadam, Karimian Bostani, & Anuri, 2020).
Khuzestan is located in a very strategic and transit position, with the highest gross production among Iranian provinces after Tehran province. Khuzestan province has 29 municipalities, 70 wards, 146 villages and 88 cities. Due to its climatic and economic conditions, Khuzestan has witnessed significant changes in its various cities. According to statistics published by the Khuzestan Road Transport and Highways Department, the length of the main roads of the city of Dezful from 31/163 in the year 2011 to 6/231 in the year 99 means 40 percent, but the city of shushter reached 2/282 in the year 2020 from 9/227 in the year 2011, that is, 24 percent growth (Alavi & Esfandiari, 2019). For this purpose, the hubness index, access index and market potential were used to examine the impact of transportation infrastructure on the economic growth of the cities of Khuzestan province.
 
METHODOLOGY
The research data for the period 2011-2020 for 27 cities of Khuzestan province is in the form of panel data, which is used to examine the temporal and spatial effects of the generalized torque method (GMM).
 
FINDINGS
The findings show that if the hubness index of the largest cities in Khuzestan province changes by 10 percent, 4.4 percent of GDP per capita will be reduced. Also, if 100% changes in the size of the hubness index of the cities of Khuzestan province, 7% will be added to the size of the largest cities of Khuzestan province. Also, according to the results of the estimate, if the size of the largest city of Khuzestan changes by 10 percent, about 20 percent will be added to the GDP of the cities of Khuzestan province. The indirect effect of the hubness index of the largest city on GDP is also a positive effect and as much as 0.12. Based on this result and the results of Model 3-1, in which the direct effect of the impact of the hubness index of the largest city on GDP is calculated at the rate of 0.44 - indicates the effects in the opposite direction. So in total, the impact of the largest city's hubness on the GDP of the cities of Khuzestan province will be 0.32.
 
CONCLUSION
The results of the study show that the hubness index had a positive effect on the size of the cities of Khuzestan province but reduced the GDP of the provincial cities. This is despite the fact that the growth of large cities in Khuzestan province has increased the GDP of the province. The indirect effects of the hubness index also indicate positive effects on the GDP of the cities of Khuzestan province. The results of this study show that the spatial development of the city of Khuzestan province was not in line with the hubness index, and it seems that cities with higher hubness capacity are marginalized. It is therefore recommended that in order to develop the population in the cities of Khuzestan province, the issue of the polarity of the city should be considered and more attention should be paid to the cities that have higher polarity indicators and higher potential in this field, such as Karun and Hamideh.

کلیدواژه‌ها English

  • Regional growth
  • road transport
  • market potential
  • space
  • Khuzestan
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  • تاریخ دریافت 17 اردیبهشت 1403
  • تاریخ بازنگری 06 تیر 1403
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  • تاریخ انتشار 01 شهریور 1405

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