Document Type : Research Paper
Authors
1 Department of Economics, Faculty of Economics and Social Sciences, Shahid Chamran University of Ahvaz, Ahvaz, Iran
2 Economics, ِDepartment of Economics, and administrative sciences, Qom University.
3 Department of social sciences and Economics, Alzahra University, Tehran
Abstract
Social unrest has become widespread in recent decades in most countries, including Iran, and the reasons and factors behind these disturbances have varied. Economic factors such as inequality, unemployment, inflation, and poverty, which have resulted from different economic policies, have led to general dissatisfaction and ultimately resulted in social unrest. On the other hand, in recent years, fluctuations in various markets in the Iranian economy have been a factor in the occurrence of unrest. Particularly, the government's encouragement of investors to enter the stock market and the subsequent fall in the Tehran Stock Exchange's main index in 2020 led to dissatisfaction among investors and, consequently, social unrest. Furthermore, given that the gold and currency markets have always been considered a safe haven for investors due to the inflationary and sanction-ridden conditions of the Iranian economy, volatility in these two markets has also caused unrest by undermining investors' sense of security. Additionally, since currency market fluctuations can increase uncertainty in the production process, an increase in social unrest due to currency market fluctuations is also a likely scenario. Therefore, this study examines the effect of gold, currency, and stock market fluctuations on social unrest in Iran from October 1999 to April 2019 using the TVP-QVAR model. The aim of this study is to answer the question of how these markets have influenced social unrest over time and which market has played a more significant role and in which time period. The results of the study indicate that while all three markets have played a role in social unrest in Iran, fluctuations in the stock market have had the most significant long-term impact on the social unrest index since 2014.
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