Document Type : Research Paper
Authors
1 M.Sc. in M.A. in Economics Major: Economic Development and Planning. Azad University of Birjand. Irann University, Iran
2 university of Sistan and Baluchestan
3 دانشگاه سیستان و بلوچستان
Abstract
In this study, the effects of government fiscal policies on the Iranian sectors of economy are investigated with emphasis on the industrial sector and by the approach of computable general equilibrium model (CGE) . In this study, the parameters of the general equilibrium model are calibrated based on the data of economic accounts matrix and the information of data-output tables of the year 2011 is used in the form of social accounting matrix (SAM). This matrix consists of 4 sections (field of activity) of agriculture, industry and mining, transportation and services. The analysis of the effect of government fiscal policies has been done under three scenarios of the 25 percent increase in government consumption expenditures, the 25 percent decrease in government consumption expenditures, and the 25 percent increase in government investment (capital expenditures). The results (first scenario) showed that exports of the agricultural and transportation sectors are decreased and other sectors are increased with the increase in government consumption expenditures. Also, the added value of all sectors has increased. Exports of the industrial sector increased by 6.43 percent and imports of this sector increased by 6.4 percent. Investment in the two sectors of industry and agriculture has decreased by 2.33 and 8.03 percent, respectively, and investment in the two sectors of transportation and services has increased. The results showed that with a 25 percent decrease in government expenditures (second scenario), exports of the industrial sector increased by 10.27 percent and imports of the industrial sector decreased by 6.62 percent. In total, exports in all sectors has increased, and imports has decreased. The results also showed that in the third scenario, exports of all sectors increased, in which the industry share shows an increase of 8.90%, and this increase is greater than other sectors, and the value added of all sectors has increased. Value added increase for the industrial sector is 18.53%, which is more than other sectors. Investment in the industrial sector increased by 13.80 percent, and production and employment increased by 7.86 and 7.65 percent, respectively. According to the results, it is suggested that in policy-making, the government implement the policy of increasing the capital expenditures more. The results of the study show the positive effect of government expansionary fiscal policies on tjr economic sectors. Therefore, it can be said that those economic policies that increase aggregate demand can also provide the economic growth along with these policies.
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