Document Type : Article-Based Dissertations


1 Ph.D. Student, Department of Economics, Faculty of Literature and Humanities, Islamic Azad University, Kerman, Iran.

2 Professor, Department of Economics, Shahid Bahonar University, Kerman, Iran.

3 Associate Professor, Department of Economics, Faculty of Literature and Humanities, Islamic Azad University, Kerman Branch, Kerman, Iran.



The purpose of this article is to investigate the impact of carbon on Iran's economy in the framework of dynamic systems. To achieve the goal, the structure of simultaneous equations is used in the framework of the dynamic model, considering that the economic effects of carbon tax on economic welfare are done through macroeconomic variable, in the dynamic model, two important variables of GDP and inflation have been selected for the influencing channel that to change the GDP, a three percent increase scenario based on the trend of this variable in the last 20 years was considered. The results showed that a 3% increase in GDP leads to an increase in greenhouse gas emissions and greenhouse gas emissions affect the carbon tax, which leads to a reduction in economic welfare. Therefore, the higher the amount of GDP, it can affect the welfare index through the green tax channel. Another channel of interest in this study is inflation, which according to the last 20-year trend, the optimal scenario, the 25% scenario, was chosen. The results have shown that inflation with an increase of 25% has been able to affect the government budget and the government budget on green tax and green tax on welfare. Therefore, we conclude that basically the changes that happened on GDP and inflation can have an effect on the degree of influence of the green tax on welfare in Iran. Also, with a 6-year forecast for the two main variables of GDP and inflation, we come to the conclusion that in order for the green tax to have positive effects on welfare, the government should focus on the two channels of GDP and inflation. On the other hand, the growth of GDP and inflation cause the flow of greenhouse gases to experience an upward trend. Because the tax system and the weakness of laws and regulations along with production incentive policies interpret the flow of green tax in a downward trend. In general, in the future, increasing economic growth from the channel of carbon reproduction and emission will decrease the level of economic welfare. And practically, due to the weak role of the green tax, this decrease in welfare can be justified.


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