Document Type : Article-Based Dissertations
Authors
1 Doctoral student of Economics, Department of Economics, Accounting, Management, Aliguderz Branch, Islamic Azad University, Aliguderz, Iran.
2 Assistant Professor of Economics, Department of Economics and Accounting, Faculty of Management and Economics, Lorestan University, Khorramabad, Iran
3 Assistant Professor of Mathematics, Department of Mathematics, Aliguderz Branch, Islamic Azad University, Aliguderz, Iran.
Abstract
The main goal of this research is to answer this basic question: will the tension between Iran's trading partner countries end for the benefit of Iran's trade, or can greater neighborliness of these countries help Iran's trade? For this purpose, using the spatial matrix of bilateral trade, which expresses the proximity and political and economic neighborhood of the countries, the neighborhood matrix was created and analyzed using the spatial panel econometric method in the period of 2016-2020 for Iran's trading partner countries. Based on the results obtained in this research, spatial effects have been confirmed for the dependent variable, independent variable and error variable, and the final approved model of GNSM has been determined. Based on these results, the coefficient of spatial delay related to the dependent variable has been estimated at 0.57, which means that if Iran's trading parties are one percent closer to each other and their neighborhood is strengthened, Iran's trade volume will be 57. 0% will increase. Examining other results shows that if the volume of trade among Iran's trading partner groups increases, Iran's share in the market will decrease. Also, improving the economic growth of trading partner countries in general has a positive effect on Iran's trade. The increase in foreign direct investment has shown positive spillover and direct effects on Iran's trade with business partners. Also, the tariff has shown a negative effect on trade and the effect of freedom of trade has been positive.
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