Document Type : Article-Based Dissertations
Authors
1 PH.D Student of economics
2 Associate Professor of Economics, Faculty of Economics and Political Science, Shahid Beheshti University
3 shahid beheshti university
Abstract
Tax revenues play an important role in advancing development programs and improving income distribution in different countries. Awareness of the factors affecting tax revenues is very important in terms of policy in this area. Previous studies in Iran have focused mainly on linear methods in examining the factors affecting tax revenues. New studies show that tax behavior can follow a nonlinear pattern. In other words, the factors affecting tax revenues may have different effects at different levels of tax revenues. In other words, these variables may have a negative effect on high levels of tax revenue and a positive effect on low levels. This problem of rejecting linear regressions cannot be investigated. With regard to this issue, the purpose of this study is to investigate the factors affecting tax revenues in Iran during the period 1981-2019 with the contingency regression approach, which is an advanced approach in investigating the asymmetric effects between independent and dependent variables. First, before estimating the model, the volume of the underground economy for Iran is estimated as a variable affecting tax revenues using the MIMIC method. The results of this study showed that the effect of per capita income variables, value added of services, industry and government expenditures had a positive and significant effect on tax revenues. The effect of oil revenues, exchange rates, the underground economy and inflation has also been negative on tax revenues. Other results of this study showed that the effect of per capita GDP, industrial value added, exchange rate and oil revenues on asymmetric tax revenue.
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