Document Type : Research Paper
Authors
1 phd student in economic
2 Assistant Professor Islamic Azad University
Abstract
The main purpose of this study is to investigate the effect of economic policy uncertainty on Iranian housing prices using SVAR-X model seasonally in the period of 1383-1388. The results show that the increase in the production gap, economic policy uncertainty and monetary policy have led to an increase, increase and decrease in housing prices in the long run, respectively. The magnitude of the absolute value of the coefficients indicates the importance of the variables affecting housing prices. The results show that monetary policy has the most and the output gap has the least effect on housing prices. The study of variables in the short run also showed that they did not have a significant effect on housing prices. The results of the impulse response also showed that the shock of housing price and the production gap variables will have a significant effect on housing prices; So that the effect of the variable housing shock on the housing price will be maintained in the following years, but the shock effect of the production gap on the housing price will be only two periods. The results of variance decomposition also showed that after ten periods, the share of shocks from large to small are: respectively housing prices (97%), production gap (2.9%), monetary policy (0.07%) and economic policy uncertainty (0.002%).
The main purpose of this study is to investigate the effect of economic policy uncertainty on Iranian housing prices using SVAR-X model seasonally in the period of 1383-1388. The results show that the increase in the production gap, economic policy uncertainty and monetary policy have led to an increase, increase and decrease in housing prices in the long run, respectively. The magnitude of the absolute value of the coefficients indicates the importance of the variables affecting housing prices. The results show that monetary policy has the most and the output gap has the least effect on housing prices. The study of variables in the short run also showed that they did not have a significant effect on housing prices. The results of the impulse response also showed that the shock of housing price and the production gap variables will have a significant effect on housing prices; So that the effect of the variable housing shock on the housing price will be maintained in the following years, but the shock effect of the production gap on the housing price will be only two periods. The results of variance decomposition also showed that after ten periods, the share of shocks from large to small are: respectively housing prices (97%), production gap (2.9%), monetary policy (0.07%) and economic policy uncertainty (0.002%).
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