نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 هیأت علمی، دانشگاه شهید بهشتی

2 دانشگاه شهید بهشتی

چکیده

ذخایر بین‌المللی به طور مستقیم برای تأمین مالی کسری تراز پرداخت‌ها و ایجاد تعادل در بازار ارز استفاده می‌شوند. از طرف دیگر شرایط خاص اقتصادی کشورهای گروه اوپک نظیر وابستگی شدید اقتصادی به درآمدهای نفتی و عدم وجود انعطاف‌پذیری لازم در نظام ارزی و همچنین بروز شوک‌های قیمتی نفت طی دهه‌های اخیر، باعث اثرگذاری نوسان‌های قیمت نفت بر سطح ذخایر بین‌المللی در این کشورها می‌شود. با توجه به اهمیت نقش ذخایر بین‌المللی در اقتصاد کشورها و همچنین به دلیل محیط اقتصادی کشورهای اوپک، در این مطالعه بر اساس رویکرد مرکانتیلیستی، تعیین کننده‌های ذخایر بین‌المللی در کشورهای اوپک با استفاده از روش اقتصادسنجی داده‌های تابلویی طی دوره‌ی 2015-1980 ارزیابی شده است. بر اساس نتایج، متغیرهای میانگین متحرک رشد درآمد صادرات حقیقی، تفاوت نرخ بهره‌ی حقیقی داخلی و جهانی، تولید ناخالص داخلی سرانه، شاخص نظام ارزی، درجه‌ی باز بودن تجاری، شاخص رابطه‌ی مبادله‌ی پایاپای خالص، بدهی خارجی کوتاه‌مدت، شاخص آزادی حساب سرمایه، نوسان‌های قیمت نفت و شوک‌های مثبت و منفی قیمت نفت به عنوان تعیین کننده‌های ذخایر بین‌المللی در کشورهای گروه اوپک شناخته شدند.

کلیدواژه‌ها

عنوان مقاله [English]

Determinants of International Reserves in OPEC Countries with Emphasizing on Oil Price Uncertainty

نویسنده [English]

  • Mehdi Yazdani 1

1 Faculty Membership, Shahid Beheshti University

چکیده [English]

International reserves directly used for financing of balance of payments deficit and adjustment of the foreign exchange market disequilibrium. On the other hand, specific economic conditions of OPEC countries such as economic dependence on oil revenues, the lack of suitable flexibility in exchange rate regime and also oil shocks during recent decades, lead to effect of oil price volatility on international reserves in these countries. Hence, due to the important role of international reserves in economies and also the economic situation of OPEC countries, in this study by using mercantilist approach, the determinants of international reserves in OPEC countries have been evaluated with emphasizing on oil price uncertainty by using panel data method during 1980-2015. According to the results, moving average of real export revenue, the difference between domestic and international real interest rate, gross domestic product per capita, exchange rate regime index, trade openness, net barter terms of trade index, short-term external debt, capital account liberalization index, oil price uncertainty, positive and negative shocks of oil price have been known as determinants of international reserves.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • International Reserves
  • OPEC
  • oil price uncertainty
  • Panel data
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