Document Type : Research Paper
Abstract
High degree instability of primary goods exports can lead to negative effect on growth in developing countries. Any instability in the foreign exchange revenues will lead to uncertainty in economic development planning. In this study for the measuring of agricultural trade volatility during the period 1981- 2011, hodrick–prescott filter was used also the Markov switching model was utilized in two regimes. Our findings indicate that in 14 years increasing and in 17 years declining has been take place in agricultural export activities. Period during s of declining was greater than period during of increasing. Increasing periods have more steepness than declining periods. Thus, during the study period, the agricultural sector has been more declining exports volatility so this will reduce the strength of the country''s non-oil exports and this effect is also visible in the subsections, Obviously, this leads to loss of agricultural exports in world markets and the country''s dependence on imports of these products has increased. Thus the study of factors affecting the reduce volatility and instability exports of agricultural export can be effective in this subsection.
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