Instability of agricultural exports in Iran with Markov Switching approach

Volume 9, Issue 3 - Serial Number 3
Vol. 9, No. 3, Autumn 2012
Autumn 2012
Pages 87-105

Document Type : Research Paper

Abstract
High degree instability of primary goods exports can lead to ‎negative effect on growth in developing countries. Any instability ‎in the foreign exchange revenues will lead to uncertainty in ‎economic development planning. In this study for the measuring ‎of agricultural trade volatility during the period ‎‏1981‏‎- ‎‏2011‏‎, ‎hodrick–prescott filter was used also the Markov switching model ‎was utilized in two regimes. Our findings indicate that in ‎‏14‏‎ years ‎increasing and in ‎‏17‏‎ years declining has been take place in ‎agricultural export activities. Period during s of declining was ‎greater than period during of increasing. Increasing periods have ‎more steepness than declining periods. Thus, during the study ‎period, the agricultural sector has been more declining exports ‎volatility so this will reduce the strength of the country''s non-oil ‎exports and this effect is also visible in the subsections, Obviously, ‎this leads to loss of agricultural exports in world markets and the ‎country''s dependence on imports of these products has increased. ‎Thus the study of factors affecting the reduce volatility and ‎instability exports of agricultural export can be effective in this ‎subsection.‎

Keywords

  • Receive Date 09 August 2014
  • Revise Date 02 December 2014
  • Accept Date 20 February 2015
  • First Publish Date 20 February 2015
  • Publish Date 22 September 2012