Document Type : Research Paper
Authors
Abstract
So far Iran economic development has been dependant on oil and gas exchange revenues. Meanwhile in recent years the volume of Iran non-oil export has increased and share of industrial commodities in export rose up. Development of non-oil export and reduction of government reliance on oil exchange revenues has been constantly emphasized by country’s planners. With regard to growing importance of non-oil exports to compensate for reduction in oil exports in the future, Instability of non-oil exports exchange earnings can cause some problems in country’s development planning. Using ARDL method, in this research factors affecting instability of Iran non-oil export revenues during the 1350-1386 period has been studied. The results of the study shows that in the long and short run there is a positive relationship between geographic concentration, instability of effective exchange rate and instability of oil export exchange revenues, with instability of non-oil export exchange revenues in Iran. The elasticity of non-oil export exchange revenues with aforementioned variables are 7.99, 15.2, 0.83 in the long run and 2.44, 4.64, 0.25, in the short run respectively.
JELclassification: C13, C51, F14, F31
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