optimal monetary policy under uncertainity conditions(philips curve)
علی
ارشدی
تهران - ابتدای بلوار افریقا-روبروی پارک سوار بیهقی-پلاک 10- پژوهشکده پولی بانک مرکزی
author
text
article
2012
per
investigation monetary policy specially in oil countries is very important because oil exporter wiil be faced many challenge. i this paper try to take a look to the uncertainity and monetary policy in iran. i use macroeconometric modeling framework to investigate the design of monetary policy when the central bank faces uncertainty about the relationship betwwen inflation and unemployment. also on the base of a loss function for central bank ; a optimal monetary policy has been cocluded. i find that the performance of the monetary policy is closely matched by a simple operational rule that focuses solely on stabilizing inflation. Furthermore, this stabilization rule is remarkably robust to uncertainty about the model parameters and to various assumptions regarding the nature and incidence of the innovations. However, the characteristics of optimal policy are very sensitive to the specification of the money expantion mechanism, thereby highlighting the importance of additional research regarding the structure of labor markets and inflation.
Quarterly Journal of Quantitative Economics
Shahid Chamran University of Ahvaz
2008-5850
9
v.
3
no.
2012
1
23
https://jqe.scu.ac.ir/article_12281_e68380058ceb2ac635abc65047d4e409.pdf
dx.doi.org/10.22055/jqe.2012.12281
Designing a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model of open economy to examine the impact of oil price shocks on macroeconomic variables
naser
khiabani
تهران-خیابان بخارست- دانشکده اقتصاد دانشگاه علامه طباطبایی
author
hossein
Amiri
دانشگاه علامه طباطبایی
author
text
article
2012
per
In this paper we will investigate the impact of price and production shocks of crude oil on macroeconomic variables in Iran and in the form of an open economy DSGE model. To this end, the transmission channels of oil shocks have been specified in accordance with the structure of the Iran economy. Simulation results of the model show that oil shocks has negative effect on output, investment and capital stock, but inflation, consumption and marginal cost increases.On the other hand oil shocks have a positive effect on government spending and the money supply. These results confirm the hypothesis of the resource curse in the economy of Iran and show that oil shocks played a key role in shaping monetary and fiscal policies and inflationHence in order to avoid of abuse consequences resulting from the oil shocks is suggested that continues supervision on the exchange reserve account and national development fund done and mechanisms performed to reduce the dominance of the government on central bank and maintaining authenticity of central bank in doing the two main tasks of this organization is to keep the value of the national currency and control inflation.
Quarterly Journal of Quantitative Economics
Shahid Chamran University of Ahvaz
2008-5850
9
v.
3
no.
2012
25
59
https://jqe.scu.ac.ir/article_12288_738f86a7fa2a7507680bdf4679f7559b.pdf
dx.doi.org/10.22055/jqe.2012.12288
The Effects of Transitory and Permanent Household Income Shocks on Divorce in Iran
حمشت الله
عسگری
ایلام - بلوار پژوهش - دانشگاه ایلام - دانشکده ادبیات و علوم انسانی - گروه اقتصاد - جناب آقای دکتر حشمت الله عسگری
9125288540
author
Behrooz
Badpa
کارشناسی ارشد حسابداری و مدرس دانشگاه
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text
article
2012
per
Divorce is one of the social problems in our society and unfortunately, the divorce rate in Iran is high. Recently, Economist and Sociologists in the pathology of many social problems such as divorce have highlighted specific role of the economic roots of these problems (e.g. income and its fluctuations). In this article, we investigate the effect of household income volatility on divorce in Iran by separating the household income shocks into transitory and permanent components. The study uses panel data of 30 states in Iran for the period of 2004-2012 (8 years). We find that at the 5% level, transitory household income shocks increase the rate of divorce, while the rate of divorce are unaffected by permanent household income shocks. Moreover, some of the factors affecting the rate of divorce has investigated in the present study. The study finds that at the 5% level, unemployment rate, women's economic participation rate and region-of-residence indicator have significant positive effect on the divorce rate but the literacy rate and household income have negative effect on divorce rate. Urbanization ratio also (at the %10 level) has significant positive effect on the divorce rate.
Quarterly Journal of Quantitative Economics
Shahid Chamran University of Ahvaz
2008-5850
9
v.
3
no.
2012
61
85
https://jqe.scu.ac.ir/article_12286_527c2ffe9bc31297c4765424d936d6fe.pdf
dx.doi.org/10.22055/jqe.2012.12286
Instability of agricultural exports in Iran with Markov Switching approach
حسین
محمدی
دانشگاه فردوسی مشهد- گروه اقتصاد کشاورزی
author
پریسا
علیزاده
دانشگاه فردوسی مشهد
author
text
article
2012
per
High degree instability of primary goods exports can lead to negative effect on growth in developing countries. Any instability in the foreign exchange revenues will lead to uncertainty in economic development planning. In this study for the measuring of agricultural trade volatility during the period 1981- 2011, hodrick–prescott filter was used also the Markov switching model was utilized in two regimes. Our findings indicate that in 14 years increasing and in 17 years declining has been take place in agricultural export activities. Period during s of declining was greater than period during of increasing. Increasing periods have more steepness than declining periods. Thus, during the study period, the agricultural sector has been more declining exports volatility so this will reduce the strength of the country''s non-oil exports and this effect is also visible in the subsections, Obviously, this leads to loss of agricultural exports in world markets and the country''s dependence on imports of these products has increased. Thus the study of factors affecting the reduce volatility and instability exports of agricultural export can be effective in this subsection.
Quarterly Journal of Quantitative Economics
Shahid Chamran University of Ahvaz
2008-5850
9
v.
3
no.
2012
87
105
https://jqe.scu.ac.ir/article_12285_208755001e0fedb4bc20e5f73b5795a4.pdf
dx.doi.org/10.22055/jqe.2012.12285
Estimating the Effects of Human, Physical and Social Capitals On Total Factor Productivity (A Case Study OF Iran)
آزاد
خانزادی
استادیار گروه اقتصاد دانشگاه رازی کرمانشاه
author
سمیرا
حیدری
مدرس دانشگاه پیام نور، واحد هرسین
author
text
article
2012
per
The production of a country can be achieved by accumulation and interaction of three species of capital considered. First, physical capital through improvements in quality of tools and machinery, labor productivity increases and thereby improve welfare, Second, the human capital that will be realized in the form of skills, education and training and Third, social capital by facilitate, expedite and reduce the cost of economic exchange increase the productivity. accordingly and given the importance of increasing productivity in growth and economic development, this paper investigate the effect of variables: growth rate of gross fixed capital as an indicator of physical capital, the rate of literacy (literacy and education coverage) as an indicator of human capital and international risk index (ICRG) as an indicator of social capital on total factor productivity, using ARDL model over the period 1992-2009 has been paid. According to the results obtained of the estimation model, Physical capital has no significant effect on productivity, but human and social capitals are important factors in increasing productivity and have significantly, positive effects impact on productivity in short-run and also long-run.
Quarterly Journal of Quantitative Economics
Shahid Chamran University of Ahvaz
2008-5850
9
v.
3
no.
2012
107
125
https://jqe.scu.ac.ir/article_12283_cb398938974894ef9f73e8777df0fec2.pdf
dx.doi.org/10.22055/jqe.2012.12283
The Internet Development Effect on International Trade in Services
بهزاد
سلمانی
استاد دانشکده اقتصاد، مدیریت و بازرگانی دانشگاه تبریز
author
پرویز
محمدزاده
استاد دانشکده اقتصاد، مدیریت و بازرگانی دانشگاه تبریز
author
Maryam
Saremi
دانشجوی دکتری دانشگاه تبریز- مدرس دانشگاه آزاد گوگان/ همکار پژوهشی جهاد دانشگاه تبریز
author
text
article
2012
per
The emergence of Internet, communication and information technology as the third millennium gift, have changed various arenas of human life. Internet has dramatically reduced the costs resulting from communication using the omission of time and place constraints in economic relations. One of the most important economic processes that become possible via direct and indirect relation in the field of international trade is the flow of trade services that has been flourished in the form of new trade process by Internet. The purpose of this research is to study the Internet development effect on the international trade services of all countries in the world. In this regard, Internet development effect on trade services have been done using the panel data method and with the help of adjusted gravity model. The results acquired from estimated model, proved a positive and significant relation between Internet and trade services. Furthermore, there is a positive and significant relation between trade in services with gross domestic product, financial depth, and population. The results acquired from analyzing model sensitivity also shows that the results are not sensitive to the change of time efficiency, statistics sample, and Internet replacement variable and it is robust. Finally, Internet effect study on import and export of services proves a positive and significant relation between Internet and import and export of services in all countries around the world.
Quarterly Journal of Quantitative Economics
Shahid Chamran University of Ahvaz
2008-5850
9
v.
3
no.
2012
127
147
https://jqe.scu.ac.ir/article_12287_567e4e964ba72d989ae160d6b3925114.pdf
dx.doi.org/10.22055/jqe.2012.12287