عنوان مقاله [English]
In recent years, a concept has been developed for an Early Warning System (EWS), which should be able to identify costly events such as currency crises in order to create enough time to reduce the cost of the crisis for economic researchers. The purpose of this study is to introduce a warning pattern before the currency crisis. In this study, factors affecting the contingency of an Iranian currency crisis during the years 1981-2016 are examined using a discrete dependent variable model in the Logit model. The results of the estimate logit model shows that the increase in variable ratio of budget deficit to GDP ratio of current account deficit to GDP ratio of domestic credit to the private sector to the GDP and inflation, the probability of a currency crisis increase. In other words, the increase in these variables (as indicators of the advancement of the currency crisis) is causing an intensification in the occurrence of the currency crisis. Other research results suggest that an increase in the GDP growth rate will reduce the probability of a currency crisis.