نوع مقاله: مقاله مستخرج از پایان نامه دکتری

نویسندگان

1 عضو هئیت علمی دانشگاه شهید چمران اهواز

2 اهواز _دانشگاه شهید چمران _دانشکده اقتصاد _کد پستی ده رقمی:1750532336- 3366187- 09166130632- دور نگار:3337411

3 دانشجوی دکتری اقتصاد دانشگاه شهید چمران اهواز

چکیده

ازنظر سازمان ملل هدف اساسی توسعه بهبود کیفیت زندگی انسان است. بر این اساس شاخص توسعه‌ی انسانی توسط نهاد مذکور به‌عنوان معیار کیفیت زندگی معرفی‌شده است. شاخص توسعه انسانی یک شاخص ترکیبی خالص است که متوسط موفقیت یک کشور را در سه معیار پایه از توسعه اندازه می‌گیرد: بهداشت و سلامتی، آموزش و رفاه اقتصادی. در این مقاله، ابتدا شاخص توسعه‌ی انسانی (بدون نفت) برای استان‌های ایران در سال‌های 1385، 1390 و 1395 با تکیه‌بر روش جدید سازمان ملل محاسبه‌شده است سپس تأثیر این شاخص بر رشد اقتصادی با استفاده از داده‌های استانی و روش منطق فازی بررسی گردیده است. در مقوله فازی‌سازی، پروسه طراحی با توجه به نوع ممدانی و همراه با در نظر گرفتن تابع عضویت مثلثی و ذوزنقه‌ای دنبال خواهد شد. مطابق نتایج حاصله بیشترین و کمترین شاخص توسعه‌ی انسانی استان‌ها در سال‌های 1385، 1390 و 1395 به ترتیب برابر با 733/0، 751/0 و 769/0 برای استان تهران و 595/0، 539/0 و 631/0 برای استان سیستان و بلوچستان است. بعد از سیستان و بلوچستان استان‌های کردستان، خراسان‌شمالی، کهگیلویه و بویراحمد و لرستان پایین‌ترین شاخص توسعه‌ی انسانی را در بین استان‌های کشور دارند. داده‌های به‌دست‌آمده نشان می‌دهد، متوسط توسعه‌ی انسانی استان‌ها در کشور در فاصله 1385 الی 1390 رشدی معادل 3 درصد داشته است درحالی‌که این رشد در فاصله 1390 الی 1395 به 5/0 درصد کاهش‌یافته است. بررسی اجزاء شاخص توسعه‌ی انسانی نشان می‌دهد مهم‌ترین عامل کندی بهبود توسعه‌ی انسانی رشد منفی درآمد سرانه‌ی استان‌ها در فاصله 1385 الی 1395 است. در این فاصله درآمد سرانه‌ی استان‌ها به‌طور متوسط حدود 20 درصد کاهش‌یافته است. با دقت در یافته‌ها ملاحظه می‌گردد که شاخص آموزش استان‌ها، نقطه قوت شاخص توسعه انسانی استان‌ها است که نشان می‌دهد تحولات خوبی در سال‌های اخیر رخ‌داده است و وضعیت آموزش‌وپرورش در کشور از دوره 1385 تا 1395 همواره رو به بهبود بوده و از 577/0 به 736/0 افزایش یافته است.  توجه به اینکه در فاصله 1390 الی 1395 روند بهبودی توسعه‌ی انسانی نسبت به قبل از آن بسیار اندک بوده است لازم است برنامه‌ریزان کشور نسبت به سرمایه‌گذاری در آموزش و بهداشت و سلامتی که اجزای اثرگذار شاخص توسعه‌اند، توجه بیشتری داشته باشند. همچنین برای بهبود شرایط زندگی ساکنین استان‌های که شاخص توسعه‌ی انسانی پایینی دارند و بنابراین دچار فقر و محرومیت بیشتری هستند، نسبت به سرمایه‌گذاری در آموزش و بهداشت و سلامتی این مناطق توجه بیشتری صورت گیرد تا ضمن افزایش درآمد سرانه‌ی و اشتغال این مناطق، شرایط برای کاهش فقر و محرومیت فراهم شود؛ اقداماتی که درنهایت می‌تواند نابرابری منطقه‌ای و بین استانی در کشور را کاهش دهد.
این نکته نیز قابل تأمل است که در طول سه دهه‌ی گذشته دولت و برنامه‌ریزان توسعه‌ی کشور، از طرق مختلف مناطق محروم و کمتر توسعه‌یافته را شناسائی نموده که با یافته‌های این مقاله همسو بوده‌اند اما آنچه که باعث شده که در طول سه دهه گذشته و به رغم ادعای توجه مسئولین به این مناطق، تفاوت معنی‌داری در وضعیت اجتماعی اقتصادی این استان‌ها رخ ندهد، شاید نگاه تک بعدی به مسئله‌ی توسعه و انجام سرمایه‌گذاری‌های کور در این مناطق بوده است. نتیجه دیگر تحقیق بیانگر تأثیر توسعه‌ی انسانی بر رشد اقتصادی استان‌ها با استفاده از روش فازی ممدانی است. با توجه به قوانین فازی طراحی‌شده در نرم‌افزار متلب، میزان تأثیر شاخص توسعه‌ی انسانی بر رشد اقتصادی استان‌ها مشخص می‌شود. تحقق قوانین دوم و سوم از قوانین منتج از روش فازی بیانگر تأثیر مثبت شاخص توسعه‌ی انسانی بر رشد اقتصادی به‌عنوان خروجی سیستم فازی استان‌ها بوده است. با دقت در یافته‌ها ملاحظه می‌گردد که  تا قبل از سطح توسعه‌ی انسانی به میزان 4/0 رابطه چندانی بین توسعه‌ی انسانی و رشد اقتصادی ملاحظه نمی‌شود اما بعد از آن به‌وضوح رابطه مثبت است.

کلیدواژه‌ها

موضوعات

عنوان مقاله [English]

Estimating Human Development Index of Iranian Provinces and Investigating its Impact on Economic Growth Using Fuzzy Logic

نویسندگان [English]

  • Sayed Morteza Afghah 1
  • AbdolMajid Ahangari 2
  • Hosein Askari por 3

1 Shahid Chamran University of AHvaz

2 Faculty of Economics of Shahid Chamran Universtity of Ahvaz

3 Candidate of Economics of Shahid Chamran University of Ahvaz

چکیده [English]

For the United Nations, the overriding goal is to improve the quality of human life. Accordingly, the Human Development Index has been introduced by this organization as a measure of quality of life. The Human Development Index is a pure composite index that measures the average success of a country on three basic benchmarks of development: health, health, education and economic welfare. In this paper, the human development index (without oil) for the provinces of Iran in 2005, 2010 and 2015 based on the United Nations method. According to the results, the highest and lowest human development indices of provinces in 2005, 2010 and 2015 were 0.733, 0.751 and 0.769 for Tehran province and 0.595, 0.539 and 0.631 for Sistan and Balochistan province, respectively. After Sistan and Baluchistan, the provinces of Kurdistan, North Khorasan, Kohgiluyeh and Boyer Ahmad, and Lorestan have the lowest human development index among Iran’s provinces. The data show that the average human development of provinces in the country has increased by 3% between 2005 and 2010, while it has decreased to 0.5% between 2010 and 2015. Another result of this study is the impact of human development on the economic growth of provinces using Fuzzy Mamdani method. Implementation of the second and third laws of the fuzzy rules has shown the positive impact of human development index on economic growth as the output of the provinces fuzzy system. An examination of the components of human development indicators shows that the most important factor in the slowdown in human development is the negative growth of provincial per capita income between 2005 and 2015. In the meantime, the per capita income of the provinces has fallen by an average of about 20%. Careful examination of the findings shows that the provincial education index is a strong point of provincial human development index as it has increased from 0.577 in 2005 to 0.736 in 2015, which indicates that good developments have taken place in recent years and that education has been constantly improving. Given that the pace of improvement in human development has been modest in the years 2010-2015, it is necessary for national planners to focus on investing in education and health, which are important components of development. Also, to improve the living conditions of the provinces with low human development indexes and more poverty and deprivation, more attention should be paid to investing in education and health in these areas to increase per capita income and employment, which would reduce poverty and deprivation measures that can ultimately lessen regional and inter-provincial inequality in the country. It is also conceivable that during the past three decades the government and development planners have identified various underprivileged and underdeveloped areas in line with the findings of this paper. However, despite the authorities' attention to these areas, no significant change has been observed in the socio-economic status of these provinces, perhaps due to a one-dimensional look at the issue of development and making blind investments in these areas. Another result of this study is the impact of human development on the economic growth of provinces using Fuzzy Mamdani method. According to fuzzy rules designed in MATLAB software, the impact of human development index on economic growth of provinces is determined. Implementation of the second and third laws of fuzzy rules has shown the positive impact of human development index on economic growth as the output of the provinces fuzzy system. Careful examination of the findings shows that there is little to no relationship between human development and economic growth prior to the level of human development, while there is clearly a positive relationship afterwards

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Human Development Index
  • Economic Growth
  • Provinces of the country
  • Fuzzy Logic

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