نوع مقاله: مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 استاد گروه اقتصاد، دانشکده علوم اجتماعی و اقتصادی، دانشگاه الزهرا، تهران، ایران

2 استادیار موسسه آموزش عالی طلوع مهر، قم، ایران

3 داﻧﺸﺠﻮی دﮐﺘﺮی اﻗﺘﺼﺎد ﺑﺨﺶ ﻋﻤﻮﻣﯽ، داﻧﺸﮑﺪه اﻗﺘﺼﺎد و ﻋﻠﻮم اﺟﺘﻤﺎﻋﯽ داﻧﺸﮕﺎه ﺑﻮﻋﻠﯽ ﺳﯿﻨﺎ، ﻫﻤﺪان، ایران.

چکیده

توسعه بخش بانکی به عنوان یکی از ابعاد توسعه بخش مالی نقش مهمی در تقویت حس سپرده­گذاری مردم برای هدایت پس­اندازهای آنان به سمت فعالیت­های تولیدی ایفا می­کند. لذا توجه به عوامل تعیین­کننده این بخش از توسعه مالی لازم به توجه است که در این پژوهش، جذب سرریز دانش از اهم­ترین عوامل موثر بر توسعه بخش بانکی، مورد توجه قرار گرفته که از توجه پژوهشگران و دولت­مردان دور مانده است.از جمله عوامل مهم و تآثیرگذار بر فعالیت‌های نوآورانه، سرریزهای دانش(فناوری) از طریق واردات کالاهای واسطه‌ای است.اهمیت تاثیرگذاری سرریز فناوری به میزان جذب آن است و جذب سرریز فناوری به کیفیت سرمایه انسانی بستگی دارد. زیرا، خصوصیات کیفی نیروی انسانی باعث استفاده مطلوب از فناوریهای خارجی و همچنین افزایش قدرت خلق طرح‌های جدید و انتقال فناوری از کالاهای وارداتی حامل دانش به تولید خدمات جدید و نوین در عرصه بانکی میگردد. بنابراین، جذب سرریز فناوری(از کانال واردات کالاهای واسطهای و سرمایهای)، امکان ارائه خدمات نوین بانکی به مشتریان بانکی را تسهیل می‌کند. از سوی دیگر، جذب سرریز فناوری به عنوان یکی از مهم­ترین مولفه­های مهم در رشد اقتصادی مستمر و باثبات منجر به کاهش هزینه­ها، افزایش کیفیت و بهبود توزیع کالاها، افزایش بهره­وری و افزایش مزیت نسبی بنگاه‌ها ­می‌گردد. در نتیجه، بهره­گیری از اثرات جذب سرریز فناوری و کسب منافع ناشی از واردات کالاهای سرمایه­ای و واسطه­ای از شرکای خارجی منجر به افزایش تمایل پس­اندازکنندگان در جهت سرمایه‌گذاری و پس­انداز می‌گردد. بدین‌ترتیب، جذب سرریز فناوری منجر به توسعه بخش بانکی می­گردد.  لذا پژوهش حاضر به بررسی تاثیر جذب سرریز دانش بر اعتبارات اعطایی به بخش خصوصی از سوی بانک­ها به عنوان شاخص توسعه بخش بانکی در کشورهای منتخب دارای فراوانی منابع طبیعی طی دوره 2015-1996 با استفاده از روش گشتاورهای تعمیم‌یافته (GMM) می­پردازد.
 بر اساس نتایج پژوهش ضریب متغیر توسعه بخش بانکی با یک وقفه مثبت است. این نتیجه نشان از پویایی توسعه بخش بانکی در طی زمان است، به طوری که کارکرد بخش بانکی در دوره جاری به دوره بعد نیز گسترش می‌‌یابد. تاثیر اثر متقابل سرریز دانش در سرمایه انسانی به عنوان شاخص جذب سرریز دانش بر توسعه بخش بانکی مثبت است چرا که نیروی کار آموزش­دیده و ماهر می­تواند با جذب سرریز فناوری از شرکای تجاری (از کانال واردات) دارای فعالیت­های تحقیق و توسعه بالا سبب خلق، کسب و انتشار دانش در راستای توسعه بخش بانکی شود چرا که افراد تحصیل­کرده و آموزش دیده با تسهیل در کسب و خلق فناوری منجر به کاهش هزینه­های خدمات بانکی و ایجاد خلاقیت و نوآوری در خدمات بانکی می­گردند و زمینه را برای افزایش تمایل سرمایه‌داران و پس­اندازکنندگان در جهت سرمایه­گذاری و پس­انداز فراهم نموده و بدین ترتیب سبب توسعه بخش بانکی می­شوند. همچنین متغیرهای نرخ سود بانکی واقعی، تولید ناخالص داخلی سرانه و شاخص قیمت مصرف­کننده نیز تاثیر مثبت بر توسعه بخش بانکی دارند و متغیر نرخ ارز نیز تاثیر بی­معنا بر توسعه بخش بانکی کشورهای منتخب دارای منابع طبیعی دارد. بنابراین متناسب با واقعیت موجود مشاهده می­شود هنوز در کشور مورد مطالعه، بخش بانکی از عملکرد مناسبی برخوردار نیست و تاثیر آن بر رفاه و رشد اقتصادی به وضوح دیده می­شود.در راستای ارتقاء بخش بانکی کشورهای دارای منابع طبیعی پیشنهادات زیر ارائه می­گردد:
ü       ایجاد فضای مناسب برای جذب دانش و فناوری حاصل از فعالیت­های تحقیق و توسعه خارجی از کانال واردات کالاهای واسطه­ای و سرمایه­ای در راستای ارتقاء کیفیت و مزیت نسبی بخش­های تولیدی و دستیابی به رشد اقتصادی مستمر و باثبات که مسبب توسعه بخش بانکی و فراهم نمودن پس­انداز و سرمایه­گذاری است.
ü       تقویت کیفیت آموزش منابع انسانی برای جذب سرریز دانش در جهت ارائه خدمات نوین بانکی از طریق هدایت ثروت­های تجدیدناپذیر(درآمدهای ارزی حاصل از منابع طبیعی) به ثروت­های تجدیدپذیر در راستای توسعه بخش بانکی. 

کلیدواژه‌ها

موضوعات

عنوان مقاله [English]

The Effect of absorption of knowledge spillover Based Economy on Iran's banking sector Development

نویسندگان [English]

  • abolfazl shahabadi 1
  • mahdi jafari 2
  • razieh davarikish 3

1 Professor, Faculty of Social Sciences and Economics, Alzahra University, Tehran, Iran

2 اAssistant Professor of Tolou-e-Mehr Non-Profit Institute of Higher Education, Qom, Iran.

3 Ph.D Student in Public economics, Faculty of Economics and Social Sciences, Bu-Ali Sina University, Hamadan, Iran

چکیده [English]

 Analyzing the effects of investor confidence on the mechanism of monetary policy transition and economic growth without Crude oil exports in Iran:  The MGARCH approach is an important factor of the capital market and the investors. The main goal of every investor is, thus, to launch their investment in order to get a maximum profit from the output of their investment. To encourage the investors to invest in the financial assets, these sort of assets must be greater than the other options (Mehrani & Bahramfar, 2004). The implementation of efficient market economy theory, which has received considerable attention by governors in the recent years, has been able to partially increase the capital market's share of money in financing firms. In effect, the qualitative and quantitative development of the capital market and the Islamic financial affairs as the main sources of financing in the last two decades, the formulation of the accounting and auditing standards required for the economic entities and other corrective actions have turned the exchange markets to one of the best options for the investment. According to the latest statistics, more than ten million Iranians are investing part of their resources in the exchange market. Therefore, this study was intended to investigate the effect of financial sustainability on monetary policy transfer mechanisms. In effect, the correlation between investor confidence in the markets, money growth and macroeconomic growth without oil was, indeed, analyzed along with their fluctuations.  
The practical research in the developed markets has shown that the change in macroeconomic variables, stock prices will also change, therefore it is expected that there is a strong relationship between the stock prices and macroeconomic variables. The stock price index is, indeed, the most important factor influencing investor decision making in the stock market; therefore we need to be aware of the factors influencing stock prices. The process of monetary policy transfer begins from the asset market because the cost of information and transaction for the most assets are lower than the costs of changing the production or adjusting the consumption or investment of durable goods, especially when there is uncertainty about policies whether they are permanent or temporary.  
As the asset market responds very quickly, therefore assets prices play an important role in the money transfer mechanism. Using the MGARCH estimator, this study investigated the relationship between investors' confidence ratios, real money growth, and economic activity without crude oil exports and their fluctuations.  
Using this estimator enables the estimation of uncertainties so as to achieve perfectly consistent criteria. In this study, the PEG index of price-earnings to earnings growth for a variable of investor confidence, which is a better indicator than PE, was calculated. It should be considered that the potential growth of the companies can reflect the life of the investors as it uses several revenue generating factors such as brand, human capital and expectations and barriers to entry.
 Thus, this study investigated the effect of financial sustainability on the monetary policy transfer mechanisms in Iran. Indeed, the correlation between investor confidence in markets, money growth and economic growth, without Iranian crude exports, was analyzed alongside their volatilities. In particular, the heterogeneity of error variances in an MGARCH framework was used to obtain the estimated uncertainty criteria.  
In this paper, seasonal data and the variables from the beginning of 1991 to the end of 2016 were considered. The results showed that there was a positive correlation between macroeconomic volatility without oil and PEG investor confidence.  
The results showed that M2 cash flow fluctuation negatively affected PEG. The results also indicated a bilateral Grange impact between macroeconomic volatility without crude oil exports and liquidity volume.
The other results of the study are as follows:
 Monetary policy can only directly affect investor confidence and its fluctuations in a long term. There is no significant Granger relationship between macroeconomic without oil and GDP growth.
 - The results showed the negative impact of macroeconomic uncertainty on oil noilGDP growth and the cause of the negative effect between production growth and its medium- and long-term volatility.
 - If monetary policy can directly control the capital market and its sustainability, given the correlation between the noilGDP and its fluctuations, the production consolidation and asset prices seem to be sufficient goals. Obviously, having a smooth economic cycle can relatively stabilize the market.
However, the analysis showed the importance of monetary policy, which reflects the strong negative correlation between currency fluctuations and macroeconomic stability without oil and assets.
 

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Knowledge Based Economy"
  • banking sector development"
  • Abundance of Natural Resources

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