عنوان مقاله [English]
The main purpose of this research is to estimate shadow economy and tax evasion in Iran, using governmental financial discipline variables for 1967-2015 period. For this purpose, at first, 8 models were selected from the best estimated ones among which the final model was selected by a multiple indicators-multiple causes (MIMIC) approach. Then, the relative and absolute size of shadow economy was calculated on the base price in 2004, using the side information and calibrating the time series; the resulting tax evasion was calculated as a ratio of shadow economy. The results indicate that the import tax burden and unemployment rate are the main causes of shadow economy in Iran. The research findings show that the inflation rate and budget deficit have a positive effect on shadow economy and the resulting tax evasion, considering three variables of inflation rate, budget deficit and governmental size as the governmental financial discipline variables. So, controlling the budget deficit and inflation rate will increase the governmental financial discipline, and finally, the size of shadow economy and the resulting tax evasion in Iran will be decreased.