A Study on the Effect of Fluctuations in Tax Revenues on Economic Growth in Iran

نوع مقاله: مقاله پژوهشی


1 استادیار اقتصاد دانشگاه ایلام، ایلام، ایران

2 دانشجوی دکتری اقتصاد دانشگاه یزد

3 دانشجوی دکتری دانشگاه علوم تحقیقات تهران


یکی از مهم‌ترین اهداف اقتصادی برای کشورها تقویت رشد اقتصادی است؛ بنابراین شناخت عوامل موثر بر آن از اهمیتی زیادی برخوردار است. به دلیل وجود بی‌ثباتی شدید در درآمدهای نفت در ایران، استفاده از سایر درآمدها مانند مالیات در تحقق هدف فوق مهم است. با توجه به وجود نوسان در سیاست‌های مالی ازجمله مالیات‌ها، شناخت اثر این نوسانات بر رشد می‌تواند در جهت دستیابی به اهداف بلندمدت رشد کمک‌کننده باشد؛ بنابراین مطالعه حاضر به بررسی اثر نوسان درآمدهای مالیاتی بر رشد اقتصادی ایران برای دوره زمانی 92-1350 با استفاده از روش EGARCH-ARDL پرداخته است. نتایج نشان داد که اگرچه نوسان درآمدهای مالیاتی دارای ضریب منفی بوده و در بلندمدت و کوتاه مدت اثر معناداری بر رشد اقتصادی ندارد اما درآمدهای مالیاتی در بلندمدت دارای اثرمعنی دار بر رشد و در کوتاه مدت فاقد این اثرگذاری است.


عنوان مقاله [English]

A Study of the Effect of Tax Revenues Fluctuations on Economic Growth in Iran (1971-2013)

نویسندگان [English]

  • abdullah shayan zeinvand 1
  • Abotaleb Kazemi 2
  • Davood Farhadi Sartangi 2
  • Mahsa Kalantarzadeh 3
2 Phd Student in Yazd Univercity
3 Phd Student, Islamic Azad University
چکیده [English]

Economic growth has been concerned as a main economic goal by countries; therefore, understanding the factors Affecting it are important. Because of the extreme volatility in oil revenues in Iran, using of other income such as taxes is important in achieving the above objective. Due to fluctuations in fiscal policy, including taxes, the effect of these fluctuations on growth can help to achieve development goals in long-term. So this study examined the effect of fluctuations in tax revenues on economic growth for the period 1970-2013 using EGARCH-ARDL's model. The results showed that the fluctuation of tax revenues, however, has a negative coefficient, but in the short and long term has no significant effect on economic growth. But Statistics shows the tax revenues in the short and long term has a significant effect on growth.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Tax Revenues Fluctuations
  • Economic Growth
  • taxes
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