تاثیر بی ثباتی درآمدهای نفت بر تولید با تاکید بر نقش نهادها: رویکرد PVAR

نوع مقاله: مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 هیئت علمی دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی شیراز

2 دانشگاه خرمشهر

چکیده

هدف از این مطالعه بررسی رابطه بین درآمدهای نفتی، نوسانات آن و عملکرد اقتصاد کلان و نقش نهادها است. در این مطالعه تلاش شده است، با تاکید بر هردوی مکانیزم‌های اقتصادی و سیاسی، تاثیر درآمدهای نفت، نوسانات این درآمدها و عملکرد نهادها بر فعالیت‌های اقتصادی مورد بررسی قرار گیرد. در این راستا از داده‌های 18 کشور نفتی طی دوره زمانی 2012-1996 و الگوی خودتوضیح برداری پانل استفاده شد. نتایج حاکی از تاثیر مثبت سطح عمومی قیمت‌ها و حجم نقدینگی بر تولید است. همچنین اثر نرخ ارز حقیقی و شاخص آزادی اقتصادی بر تولید، به ترتیب منفی و مثبت بوده است. نهایتا اینکه درآمدهای نفت تاثیر مثبت بر تولید کشورهای مورد بررسی داشته است، در حالی‌که نوسانات این درآمدها اثر نامطلوبی برجای گذاشته است. نتایج بدست آمده حاکی از آن است که درآمد نفت در کشورهای صادرکننده نفت، از حالت یک ثروت بادآورده خارج شده و با توجه به الگوهای رشد جدید می‌توان از آنها به عنوان عاملی برای تولید در این کشورها یاد کرد. بهرحال نوسانات وارد شده بواسطه درآمدهای نفتی بر اقتصاد کشورها و نیز کاهش کیفیت نهادها در کشورهای نفتی می‌تواند اثرات نامطلوبی بر تولید داشته باشد.

کلیدواژه‌ها


عنوان مقاله [English]

The Impact of Oil Revenue Volatility on Production with Emphasis on the Role of Institution: PVAR Approach

چکیده [English]

The aim of this study is to investigate the probable relationship between oil revenue volatility, economic growth and the role of institutions. To achieve this, the impact of oil revenues, its volatility and role of institutions on economic activity are examined with an emphasis on both economic and political mechanisms. In this regard, the data from 18 oil producing countries during 1996-2012 and Panel Vector Auto Regression models were utilized. The results show a positive impact on the general level of prices and liquidity on production. The effect of the real exchange rate and the economic freedom index on production was negative and positive, respectively. Furthermore, oil revenues have a positive impact on the production in the surveyed countries, while the volatility of these revenues is adversely left. The results indicate that the oil revenues in oil-producing countries are not windfall wealth anymore; and according to the recent growth theories, they can be considered as a production factor. The resource curse is the effect of oil revenue volatility on the economy and the reduction of the institution quality that could have a negative impact on oil production in producing countries.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Economic Growth
  • Institution
  • Oil Volatility
  • Resource Curse
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